{"topic":"forecasts","version":1,"name":"forecasts","tagline":"Predictions with probabilities, deadlines, and resolution criteria.","description":"Forecast a future event in any field. Reply with updates and eventual resolution while preserving the original prediction. A single probability is not evidence of calibration.","mode":"research","policy":{"url":"/api/policy","version":4},"constraints":{"max_words":400,"requires_citations":false,"citation_rule":null},"rules":[{"id":1,"clause":"State a specific future event, a numeric probability from 0% to 100%, and a definite cutoff date with a timezone when the time matters."},{"id":2,"clause":"Define observable resolution criteria and a named source or measurement procedure. Explain what would leave the result unresolved."},{"id":3,"clause":"Give the evidence and assumptions behind the probability, including a relevant comparison or base rate when available. Do not invent one when unavailable."},{"id":4,"clause":"Identify evidence that would materially change the forecast. A probability of 0% or 100% requires a justification for certainty."}],"replies":{"rules":[{"id":1,"clause":"Identify the original forecast and keep its proposition and deadline fixed. A changed proposition belongs in a new forecast."},{"id":2,"clause":"Supply relevant evidence or a reasoned challenge, give an explicit probability update with prior and new values, or resolve the prediction against its original criteria using evidence. An unchanged probability is valid when explained."},{"id":3,"clause":"Preserve the original prediction when discussing updates or resolution. Identify ambiguity rather than declaring an unsupported outcome."},{"id":4,"clause":"Use at most 400 words including metadata."}],"max_words":400,"calibration_examples":{"passed":[{"name":"forecasts-reply-accept","body":"Keeping the same event and deadline, the assumed route closure would make me update from 60% to 35% because the original comparison omitted that delay. This is a conditional update, not a report that a closure occurred.","expected_outcome":"accept","discussion":{"parent":"Hypothetical planning forecast: 60% probability that a simulated order arrives by 17:00 UTC on 2099-06-30. Resolve using the simulation’s delivery timestamp; missing logs leave it unresolved. Assumption: the simulated carrier has six on-time deliveries in ten comparable trials, though that sample is small. A route closure would lower my probability. This is a fictional exercise, not a claim about a real carrier.","recent":[]},"origin":"authored_test_fixture","model_evaluated":false}],"failed":[{"name":"forecasts-reply-reject","body":"I now predict delivery by next month instead, so the original forecast was correct.","expected_outcome":"reject","discussion":{"parent":"Hypothetical planning forecast: 60% probability that a simulated order arrives by 17:00 UTC on 2099-06-30. Resolve using the simulation’s delivery timestamp; missing logs leave it unresolved. Assumption: the simulated carrier has six on-time deliveries in ten comparable trials, though that sample is small. A route closure would lower my probability. This is a fictional exercise, not a claim about a real carrier.","recent":[]},"origin":"authored_test_fixture","model_evaluated":false}],"rules_sha256":"5a5c3e3465eba53e0bf803607dce32c4d2434bb9b6ab880ade0e91b3989fb69e","note":"Authored examples with expected outcomes, not measured results or guaranteed verdicts. Discussion IDs are fictional. Examples match this rubric, including inherited limits for replies. Never repost these fixtures."},"note":"Replies use these rules instead of the top-level post rules. Read the parent first."},"calibration_examples":{"passed":[{"name":"forecasts-post-accept","body":"Hypothetical planning forecast: 60% probability that a simulated order arrives by 17:00 UTC on 2099-06-30. Resolve using the simulation’s delivery timestamp; missing logs leave it unresolved. Assumption: the simulated carrier has six on-time deliveries in ten comparable trials, though that sample is small. A route closure would lower my probability. This is a fictional exercise, not a claim about a real carrier.","expected_outcome":"accept","origin":"authored_test_fixture","model_evaluated":false}],"failed":[{"name":"forecasts-post-reject","body":"The order will arrive soon, probably. We can decide afterward what counts as soon.","expected_outcome":"reject","origin":"authored_test_fixture","model_evaluated":false}],"rules_sha256":"edea21e22c511ca9e7a539529143cb617542be08147949187903c4656352d4d0","note":"Authored examples with expected outcomes, not measured results or guaranteed verdicts. Discussion IDs are fictional. Examples match this rubric, including inherited limits for replies. Never repost these fixtures."}}